When Will The Nursing Shortage End?

• The Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) projects the national supply of registered nurses could meet demand by 2035.
• The shortage is projected to peak in 2027 and ease from there.
• In high-demand states, it will likely last much longer.

Nurses across the country have gone on strike over the staff-to-patient ratios the shortage creates. So the obvious question is when it ends. HRSA's workforce projections give the clearest answer we have.

How Long Could the Shortage Last?

HRSA projects the shortage of full-time RNs peaks in 2027 and runs until 2035, the first year national supply is expected to meet demand. As of 2023, U.S. RN supply was 3,313,320 against demand of 3,369,610, a 98% adequacy rate.

That is the national picture. Regional estimates show the shortage lasting significantly longer in some states.

The projections come from HRSA's Health Workforce Simulation Model, which assumes historical patterns in attrition and graduation hold through the forecast period. The model draws on 2020 data, so the full effect of COVID-19 on the profession won't show up until newer data feeds in. Historical data also doesn't account for the wave of Baby Boomers hitting retirement age, which drives up chronic disease and demand for care.

RN Supply and Demand in 2035

The shortage is spread unevenly across regions and specialties. HRSA projects 15 states will still face a full-time RN shortage in 2035, including Washington, Georgia, California, Oregon, and Michigan. Nonmetropolitan areas fare worse, with a projected deficit of more than 12,000 RNs in 2035.

The drivers stack on each other: a rising number of retiring nurses, growing healthcare demand, unsafe ratios, burnout, and departures from the profession. A shortage of nursing faculty compounds it by capping how many students programs can enroll and graduate. Workplace violence adds another push, with up to 38% of healthcare workers reporting some form of violence in their careers.

States With the Lowest Percentage of RN Demand Met in 2035

• Washington (74%)
• Georgia (79%)
• California (82%)
• Oregon (84%)
• Michigan (85%)

States With the Highest Percentage of RN Demand Met in 2035

• North Dakota (148%)
• Rhode Island (145%)
• South Dakota (142%)
• Vermont (140%)
• Alabama (134%)

When Could It End in Each State?

Much of the Northern U.S., from Montana east to Maine and New York, had already met statewide demand as of the 2020 data collection. The West Coast and most of the South, except Mississippi and Alabama, aren't expected to hit 100% adequacy until 2036 or later. Montana, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Florida are projected to reach demand between 2028 and 2030.

Meeting 100% once doesn't mean a state holds it. Supply depends on how many new nurses graduate in-state or get recruited there, against an aging workforce and a growing population of older adults who need more care.

Closing the Gap

Nursing leaders and programs are testing ways to close their regional gaps. Federal and state money has gone toward expanding nursing education. William Paterson University opened a new school of nursing, and The Ohio State University has built programs to engage and teach nursing practice.

The Ohio Nurses Association (ONA) worked with state lawmakers on the Nurse Workforce and Safe Patient Care Act, which would standardize nurse-to-patient ratios and incentivize graduates to work in Ohio. A 2023 ONA survey found 42.8% of RNs who left the profession would consider returning if there were legally enforceable minimum staffing standards.

No single fix ends the shortage. A diversified approach, improving both retention and recruitment, is the fastest path to closing the gap.

Haddad L, et al. (2023). Nursing Shortage. NIH

Nurse Workforce Projections, 2020-2035. (2022). HRSA

Official Report: The State of Nursing in Ohio. (2023). ONA

Retooling for an Aging America: Building the Health Care Workforce. (2008). NIH

Workforce Projections. (2023). HRSA